Transversal · Política Monetária
Quão restritiva é a política monetária hoje?
Com Selic de 13,7% e inflação implícita de 5,7% em 5 anos, o juro real ex-ante está em 6,8% — bem acima do neutro estimado (4,5%–5%).
Período:
Filtro temporal instantâneo
Quão apertado está o juro
Juro real ex-ante: vértice de 5 anos da curva real ajustada às taxas dos títulos IPCA+ do Tesouro Direto. Ex-post: Selic efetiva menos o IPCA acumulado em 12 meses.
Selic efetiva
13,65%
-1,25 p.p.
Juro real 5 anos (ex-ante)
6,79%
-0,77 p.p.
Inflação implícita 5 anos
5,68%
-0,02 p.p.
IPCA em 12 meses
4,58%
-0,59 p.p.
Juro real ex-ante de 6,8%: território restritivo
ETTJ real de 5 anos (Tesouro Direto) × Selic menos IPCA 12m, fim de mês (% a.a.)
Ver tabela de dados
| Período | Juro real ex-ante 5 anos | Juro real ex-post (Selic − IPCA 12m) |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-01-01 | 6,7% | 3,4% |
| 2016-02-01 | 6,6% | 3,8% |
| 2016-03-01 | 6,4% | 4,8% |
| 2016-04-01 | 6,2% | 4,9% |
| 2016-05-01 | 6,2% | 4,8% |
| 2016-06-01 | 6,3% | 5,3% |
| 2016-07-01 | 6,2% | 5,4% |
| 2016-08-01 | 6,1% | 5,2% |
| 2016-09-01 | 5,9% | 5,7% |
| 2016-10-01 | 6,0% | 6,0% |
| 2016-11-01 | 6,1% | 6,9% |
| 2016-12-01 | 5,9% | 7,4% |
| 2017-01-01 | 5,6% | 7,6% |
| 2017-02-01 | 5,3% | 7,4% |
| 2017-03-01 | 5,1% | 7,6% |
| 2017-04-01 | 5,1% | 7,1% |
| 2017-05-01 | 5,3% | 7,6% |
| 2017-06-01 | 5,3% | 7,2% |
| 2017-07-01 | 4,5% | 6,4% |
| 2017-08-01 | 4,4% | 6,7% |
| 2017-09-01 | 4,2% | 5,6% |
| 2017-10-01 | 4,2% | 4,7% |
| 2017-11-01 | 4,5% | 4,6% |
| 2017-12-01 | 4,5% | 4,0% |
| 2018-01-01 | 4,1% | 4,0% |
| 2018-02-01 | 4,2% | 3,8% |
| 2018-03-01 | 4,0% | 3,7% |
| 2018-04-01 | 4,0% | 3,6% |
| 2018-05-01 | 4,8% | 3,5% |
| 2018-06-01 | 5,1% | 2,0% |
| 2018-07-01 | 5,0% | 1,9% |
| 2018-08-01 | 5,4% | 2,2% |
| 2018-09-01 | 5,4% | 1,9% |
| 2018-10-01 | 4,4% | 1,8% |
| 2018-11-01 | 4,7% | 2,4% |
| 2018-12-01 | 4,3% | 2,7% |
| 2019-01-01 | 4,0% | 2,6% |
| 2019-02-01 | 4,0% | 2,5% |
| 2019-03-01 | 3,9% | 1,8% |
| 2019-04-01 | 3,9% | 1,5% |
| 2019-05-01 | 3,8% | 1,7% |
| 2019-06-01 | — | 3,0% |
| 2019-07-01 | — | 3,2% |
| 2019-08-01 | 3,1% | 2,5% |
| 2019-09-01 | 2,6% | 2,5% |
| 2019-10-01 | 2,0% | 2,4% |
| 2019-11-01 | 2,4% | 1,6% |
| 2019-12-01 | 2,4% | 0,1% |
| 2020-01-01 | 2,4% | 0,2% |
| 2020-02-01 | 2,4% | 0,1% |
| 2020-03-01 | 3,3% | 0,4% |
| 2020-04-01 | 3,1% | 1,2% |
| 2020-05-01 | 2,3% | 1,0% |
| 2020-06-01 | 2,1% | 0,0% |
| 2020-07-01 | 1,7% | -0,2% |
| 2020-08-01 | 2,0% | -0,5% |
| 2020-09-01 | 2,5% | -1,2% |
| 2020-10-01 | 2,7% | -2,0% |
| 2020-11-01 | 2,6% | -2,4% |
| 2020-12-01 | 2,2% | -2,6% |
| 2021-01-01 | 2,6% | -2,7% |
| 2021-02-01 | 2,9% | -3,3% |
| 2021-03-01 | 3,5% | -3,4% |
| 2021-04-01 | 3,3% | -4,1% |
| 2021-05-01 | 3,4% | -4,7% |
| 2021-06-01 | 3,7% | -4,2% |
| 2021-07-01 | 3,9% | -4,8% |
| 2021-08-01 | 4,4% | -4,5% |
| 2021-09-01 | 4,6% | -4,1% |
| 2021-10-01 | 5,7% | -3,0% |
| 2021-11-01 | 5,1% | -3,1% |
| 2021-12-01 | 5,0% | -0,9% |
| 2022-01-01 | 5,3% | -1,2% |
| 2022-02-01 | 5,4% | 0,1% |
| 2022-03-01 | 5,1% | 0,3% |
| 2022-04-01 | 5,3% | -0,5% |
| 2022-05-01 | 5,5% | 0,9% |
| 2022-06-01 | 5,6% | 1,3% |
| 2022-07-01 | 5,8% | 3,1% |
| 2022-08-01 | 5,6% | 4,9% |
| 2022-09-01 | 5,5% | 6,5% |
| 2022-10-01 | 5,5% | 7,2% |
| 2022-11-01 | 5,7% | 7,8% |
| 2022-12-01 | 5,9% | 7,9% |
| 2023-01-01 | 6,1% | 7,9% |
| 2023-02-01 | 6,0% | 8,1% |
| 2023-03-01 | 5,7% | 9,0% |
| 2023-04-01 | 5,6% | 9,5% |
| 2023-05-01 | 5,2% | 9,7% |
| 2023-06-01 | 5,1% | 10,5% |
| 2023-07-01 | 4,9% | 9,7% |
| 2023-08-01 | 5,0% | 8,5% |
| 2023-09-01 | 5,5% | 7,5% |
| 2023-10-01 | 5,8% | 7,8% |
| 2023-11-01 | 5,4% | 7,5% |
| 2023-12-01 | 5,2% | 7,0% |
| 2024-01-01 | 5,5% | 7,1% |
| 2024-02-01 | 5,5% | 6,7% |
| 2024-03-01 | 5,7% | 6,7% |
| 2024-04-01 | 6,1% | 7,0% |
| 2024-05-01 | 6,2% | 6,5% |
| 2024-06-01 | 6,4% | 6,2% |
| 2024-07-01 | 6,3% | 5,9% |
| 2024-08-01 | 6,3% | 6,2% |
| 2024-09-01 | 6,5% | 6,2% |
| 2024-10-01 | 6,9% | 5,9% |
| 2024-11-01 | 7,4% | 6,3% |
| 2024-12-01 | 7,8% | 7,3% |
| 2025-01-01 | 7,5% | 8,6% |
| 2025-02-01 | 7,7% | 8,1% |
| 2025-03-01 | 7,7% | 8,7% |
| 2025-04-01 | 7,1% | 8,6% |
| 2025-05-01 | 7,0% | 9,3% |
| 2025-06-01 | 7,1% | 9,6% |
| 2025-07-01 | 7,3% | 9,7% |
| 2025-08-01 | 7,3% | 9,8% |
| 2025-09-01 | 7,4% | 9,7% |
| 2025-10-01 | 7,4% | 10,2% |
| 2025-11-01 | 7,2% | 10,4% |
| 2025-12-01 | 7,1% | 10,6% |
| 2026-01-01 | 7,0% | 10,5% |
| 2026-02-01 | 7,3% | 11,1% |
| 2026-03-01 | 7,7% | 10,5% |
| 2026-04-01 | 7,6% | 10,0% |
| 2026-05-01 | 7,7% | 9,7% |
| 2026-06-01 | 8,2% | 9,5% |
| 2026-07-01 | 7,9% | 9,7% |
| 2026-08-01 | 8,0% | 9,7% |
| 2026-09-01 | 7,5% | 9,1% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6,8% | — |
Doze meses de juros e inflação
% a.a. · há 12 meses → último fim de mês
Ver tabela de dados
| Série | out/2025 | out/2026 | Variação |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selic efetiva, fim do mês (% a.a.) | 14,9% | 13,7% | -1,2 p.p. |
| Juro nominal 5 anos | 13,5% | 12,8% | -0,6 p.p. |
| Inflação implícita 5 anos | 5,7% | 5,7% | -0,0 p.p. |
| IPCA em 12 meses | 5,2% | 4,6% | -0,6 p.p. |
Curva real e expectativas
Inflação implícita opera acima do IPCA
Inflação implícita de 5 anos (ETTJ) × IPCA 12m (%)
Ver tabela de dados
| Período | Inflação implícita 5 anos | IPCA em 12 meses |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-01-01 | — | 2,9% |
| 2018-02-01 | 4,9% | 2,8% |
| 2018-03-01 | 4,9% | 2,7% |
| 2018-04-01 | 4,9% | 2,8% |
| 2018-05-01 | 5,5% | 2,9% |
| 2018-06-01 | 5,6% | 4,4% |
| 2018-07-01 | 5,2% | 4,5% |
| 2018-08-01 | 6,1% | 4,2% |
| 2018-09-01 | 5,6% | 4,5% |
| 2018-10-01 | 4,7% | 4,6% |
| 2018-11-01 | 4,5% | 4,0% |
| 2018-12-01 | 4,3% | 3,8% |
| 2019-01-01 | 4,4% | 3,8% |
| 2019-02-01 | 4,4% | 3,9% |
| 2019-03-01 | 4,4% | 4,6% |
| 2019-04-01 | 4,5% | 4,9% |
| 2019-05-01 | 4,5% | 4,7% |
| 2019-06-01 | — | 3,4% |
| 2019-07-01 | — | 3,2% |
| 2019-08-01 | 3,9% | 3,4% |
| 2019-09-01 | 3,9% | 2,9% |
| 2019-10-01 | 3,9% | 2,5% |
| 2019-11-01 | 4,0% | 3,3% |
| 2019-12-01 | 4,0% | 4,3% |
| 2020-01-01 | — | 4,2% |
| 2020-02-01 | 3,8% | 4,0% |
| 2020-03-01 | 3,5% | 3,3% |
| 2020-04-01 | 3,6% | 2,4% |
| 2020-05-01 | 3,9% | 1,9% |
| 2020-06-01 | 3,9% | 2,1% |
| 2020-07-01 | 3,9% | 2,3% |
| 2020-08-01 | 4,3% | 2,4% |
| 2020-09-01 | 4,6% | 3,1% |
| 2020-10-01 | 4,5% | 3,9% |
| 2020-11-01 | 4,6% | 4,3% |
| 2020-12-01 | 4,2% | 4,5% |
| 2021-01-01 | — | 4,6% |
| 2021-02-01 | — | 5,2% |
| 2021-03-01 | — | 6,1% |
| 2021-04-01 | — | 6,8% |
| 2021-05-01 | — | 8,1% |
| 2021-06-01 | — | 8,3% |
| 2021-07-01 | — | 9,0% |
| 2021-08-01 | — | 9,7% |
| 2021-09-01 | — | 10,2% |
| 2021-10-01 | — | 10,7% |
| 2021-11-01 | — | 10,7% |
| 2021-12-01 | — | 10,1% |
| 2022-01-01 | — | 10,4% |
| 2022-02-01 | 5,6% | 10,5% |
| 2022-03-01 | 6,0% | 11,3% |
| 2022-04-01 | 6,3% | 12,1% |
| 2022-05-01 | 6,5% | 11,7% |
| 2022-06-01 | 6,9% | 11,9% |
| 2022-07-01 | 6,8% | 10,1% |
| 2022-08-01 | 6,2% | 8,7% |
| 2022-09-01 | 6,2% | 7,2% |
| 2022-10-01 | 6,3% | 6,5% |
| 2022-11-01 | 6,9% | 5,9% |
| 2022-12-01 | 6,5% | 5,8% |
| 2023-01-01 | 6,6% | 5,8% |
| 2023-02-01 | 6,8% | 5,6% |
| 2023-03-01 | 6,4% | 4,7% |
| 2023-04-01 | 6,2% | 4,2% |
| 2023-05-01 | 5,7% | 3,9% |
| 2023-06-01 | 5,2% | 3,2% |
| 2023-07-01 | 5,4% | 4,0% |
| 2023-08-01 | 5,4% | 4,6% |
| 2023-09-01 | 5,5% | 5,2% |
| 2023-10-01 | 5,4% | 4,8% |
| 2023-11-01 | 4,9% | 4,7% |
| 2023-12-01 | 4,9% | 4,6% |
| 2024-01-01 | — | 4,5% |
| 2024-02-01 | 4,8% | 4,5% |
| 2024-03-01 | 4,8% | 3,9% |
| 2024-04-01 | 5,0% | 3,7% |
| 2024-05-01 | 5,3% | 3,9% |
| 2024-06-01 | 5,5% | 4,2% |
| 2024-07-01 | 5,5% | 4,5% |
| 2024-08-01 | 5,4% | 4,2% |
| 2024-09-01 | 5,6% | 4,4% |
| 2024-10-01 | 5,7% | 4,8% |
| 2024-11-01 | 6,4% | 4,9% |
| 2024-12-01 | 7,3% | 4,8% |
| 2025-01-01 | 6,8% | 4,6% |
| 2025-02-01 | 6,8% | 5,1% |
| 2025-03-01 | 6,7% | 5,5% |
| 2025-04-01 | 6,3% | 5,5% |
| 2025-05-01 | 6,3% | 5,3% |
| 2025-06-01 | 6,0% | 5,3% |
| 2025-07-01 | 5,9% | 5,2% |
| 2025-08-01 | 5,9% | 5,1% |
| 2025-09-01 | 5,7% | 5,2% |
| 2025-10-01 | 5,7% | 4,7% |
| 2025-11-01 | 5,6% | 4,5% |
| 2025-12-01 | 6,1% | 4,3% |
| 2026-01-01 | 5,8% | 4,4% |
| 2026-02-01 | 5,5% | 3,8% |
| 2026-03-01 | 5,9% | 4,1% |
| 2026-04-01 | 5,7% | 4,4% |
| 2026-05-01 | 5,9% | 4,7% |
| 2026-06-01 | 5,7% | 4,6% |
| 2026-07-01 | 6,2% | 4,4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 6,1% | 4,2% |
| 2026-09-01 | 6,0% | 4,6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 5,7% | — |
Taxas dos títulos IPCA+: há 12 meses → hoje
Taxa de compra (IPCA + % a.a.) por vencimento
Ver tabela de dados
| Série | 15/10/2025 | 15/10/2026 | Variação |
|---|---|---|---|
| IPCA+ 2029 | 8,08% | 6,77% | -1,31 p.p. |
| IPCA+ 2035 | 7,66% | 6,84% | -0,82 p.p. |
| IPCA+ 2045 | 7,29% | 6,73% | -0,56 p.p. |
| IPCA+ 2050 | 7,12% | 6,74% | -0,38 p.p. |
Mês a mês
| Período | Selic | IPCA 12m | Juro real ex-post | Juro real 5a | Implícita 5a |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 13,65% | 4,58% | 9,07% | 7,51% | 6,04% |
| 2026-08-01 | 13,90% | 4,22% | 9,68% | 7,98% | 6,05% |
| 2026-07-01 | 14,15% | 4,44% | 9,71% | 7,90% | 6,19% |
| 2026-06-01 | 14,15% | 4,64% | 9,51% | 8,22% | 5,71% |
| 2026-05-01 | 14,40% | 4,72% | 9,68% | 7,73% | 5,88% |
| 2026-04-01 | 14,40% | 4,39% | 10,01% | 7,63% | 5,73% |
| 2026-03-01 | 14,65% | 4,14% | 10,51% | 7,74% | 5,88% |
| 2026-02-01 | 14,90% | 3,81% | 11,09% | 7,26% | 5,49% |
| 2026-01-01 | 14,90% | 4,44% | 10,46% | 6,98% | 5,79% |
| 2025-12-01 | 14,90% | 4,26% | 10,64% | 7,08% | 6,09% |
| 2025-11-01 | 14,90% | 4,46% | 10,44% | 7,16% | 5,55% |
| 2025-10-01 | 14,90% | 4,68% | 10,22% | 7,38% | 5,69% |
Metodologia e fontes
- Fontes: BCB/SGS e Tesouro Direto.